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PHEVs release almost five times greater global warming emissions than official figures show, as per a recent report.

Widening Discrepancy Between Official and Actual Emissions

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release only 19% less CO₂ than conventional petrol and diesel cars, based on analysis conducted by a advocacy group. That contrasts significantly with laboratory estimates, which assumed a 75% reduction in pollution.

Researchers studied information from onboard energy use meters of 800,000 vehicles registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are increasing, while official figures are decreasing,” stated a senior researcher involved in the study. “That discrepancy is widening and creates a significant problem. Consequently, PHEVs pollute nearly as much as gasoline vehicles.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Discrepancy

Analysts linked the majority of the gap to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the percentage of kilometers travelled in battery mode compared to total mileage. They found that only 27% of travel was completed in electric mode, whereas official assumptions assumed 84%.

Additionally, when operating in EV mode, pollution amounts were significantly higher than official estimates. This happened because electric motors were not strong sufficient to function alone, resulting to combustion motors using gasoline for almost a third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

Based on calculations, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed four major carmaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, owners of PHEVs would pay approximately €500 more per year in operating expenses than is assumed under laboratory tests.

“The strong statements that automakers often promote about their plug-in hybrid vehicles are obviously way off the mark,” stated a transport analyst. “Buyers are being misled into thinking that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy use, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Pressure

Hybrid vehicles have recently been brought again into policy discussions as automakers have pressed the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and opposition from EU countries with significant automotive industries.

Several senior politicians have proposed PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” option to introduce in the legislation.

One external energy policy specialist, who was not involved with the study, described the analysis a “highly valuable contribution” after years in which segments of the car industry claimed there was too little data to properly evaluate real-world CO2 output.

“The results demonstrate, without question, that the difference between lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly larger than for gasoline or diesel cars,” the expert said. “Any regulatory changes regarding PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and considering that evidence.”